Globalization, Privatization and Population Decline in Eastern Europe: The Case of Serbia

Volume 6, Issue 5, October 2021     |     PP. 124-165      |     PDF (741 K)    |     Pub. Date: October 28, 2021
DOI: 10.54647/economics79262    101 Downloads     5488 Views  

Author(s)

Marija Obradović, Institute for Recent History of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia
Nada Novaković, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia

Abstract
In this paper, we provide the first evidence of a link between the policies of privatization and population decline in Eastern Europe. The globalization context is an opportune setting to investigate this link. Privatization is an integral element of transition, a part of globalization, conceptualized and managed by the World Bank, an international organization of financial capital.
Privatization led to an enormous increase in inequality in the distribution of wealth and income across the global economy.
In the USA and Western Europe, the working classes were rapidly and drastically impoverished, while in Eastern European countries' transition economies, they were almost entirely pauperized.
We identified a significant positive correlation between globalization, privatization, and the pauperization of the working class, with the outcome of population decline across Eastern Europe.This is especially visible in the territory of the former Yugoslavia where the breakup of the Socialist Federative Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) led to the cruel fratricidal war from 1991 to 1995.
This study aims to empirically examine a particular situation in Serbia and armed conflict in Kosovo from February 1998 to 11th of June 1999. Demographic swing (population decline) is tracked by applying the concepts of Kuznetsov cycles and Malthusian waves, i.e., the movement of average income and inequality indices.

Keywords
Globalization, privatization,depopulation, Eastern Europe, Serbia

Cite this paper
Marija Obradović, Nada Novaković, Globalization, Privatization and Population Decline in Eastern Europe: The Case of Serbia , SCIREA Journal of Economics. Volume 6, Issue 5, October 2021 | PP. 124-165. 10.54647/economics79262

References

[ 1 ] Joseph E. Stiglitz, Globalization and Its Discontents, W. W. Norton & Company, New York, London, 2003, p.9
[ 2 ] Ibidem,p. 6
[ 3 ] Charles Bettelheim, The Transition to Socialist Economy, Translated from the French by Brian Pearce, Sussex, The Harvester Press Limited, 1968, p.13
[ 4 ] Ibidem,p.18
[ 5 ] Ljubiša R. Mitrović, In the Role of Transition: between sunset and alternatives ( The pace of transition for transition and alternative society), Univerzitet u Nišu, Filozofski fakultet, Prometej, Niš, Novi Sad, 2017, p. p. 110, 186
[ 6 ] Ibidem, p.19
[ 7 ] The World Bank ran privatization all by itself in Eastern European countries through privatization agencies by approving the selection of individual international investment banks as advisors and investment consultants as well as donations for expert assistance in privatization.(Dokumenti Agencije za privatizaciju Republike Srbije, avgust 2001.).
[ 8 ] Branko Milanović, Global Inequality. A New Approach for the Age of Globalization, Harvard University Press, London, 2016
[ 9 ] Toma Piketi, Kapital i XXI veku, Akademska knjiga, Novi Sad, 2015
[ 10 ] Džozef E. Stiglic, Velika podela, Akademska knjiga, Novi Sad, 2015, p.p. 101,102
[ 11 ] Branko Milanović, Globalna nejednakost, Akademska knjiga, Novi Sad, 2016
[ 12 ] Narjess Boubakri, Jean Claude Cosset, Walid Saffar, „The role of state and foreign owners in corporate risk-taking: Evidence from privatization “, Journal of Financial Economics 108, 2013, p. 642
[ 13 ] Martha de Melo, Cevdet Denizer, Alan Gelb, From Plan to Market Patterns of Transition, Policy Research Working Paper, The World Bank, Policy Research Department, Transition Economics Division, January, 1996
[ 14 ] William L. Megginson, Michael F. Price, Jeffry M. Netter, „From State to Market: A Survey of Empirical Studies on Privatization “, Global Equity Markets, A joint conference of the SBF Bourse de Paris and the New York Stock Exchange, Paris, France, December 10-11, 1998, p.43
[ 15 ] William L. Megginson, Michael F. Price, Jeffry M. Netter, „From State to Market: A Survey of Empirical Studies on Privatization”, Global Equity Markets, A joint conference of the SBF Bourse de Paris and the New York Stock Exchange, Paris, France, December 10-11, 1998, p.19
[ 16 ] Marija Obradović, Hronika tranzicionog groblja. Privatizacija društvenog kapitala u Srbiji 1989-2012. Nova srpska politička misao, Institut za noviju istoriju Srbije, Beograd, 2017, p.41
[ 17 ] Lawrence P. King, Explaining Postcommunist Economic Performance, The William Davidson Institute, The University of Michigan Business School, Working paper Number 559, May , 2003.
[ 18 ] Veran Matić, chairman of the Republic of Serbia’s government commission for investigation of the unsolved murder cases of journalists, published an open letter (dated June 10th, 2021, the tenth anniversary of the murder) posted to javniservis.net, linking the death of Milan Pantić, a correspondent journalist for Večernje Novosti from Jagodina, reporting on the privatization of the cement plant Novi Popovac in Paraćin.
[ 19 ] Kathryn L. Dewenter, Paul H. Malatesta, „Public Offerings of State-Owned And Privately-Owned Enterprises: An International Comparison”, The Journal of Finance Vol. LII, NO 4, September 1997, p. 1660
[ 20 ] Bruce Kogut , Andrew Spicer, Institutional Technology and the Chains of Trust: Capital Markets and Privatization in Russia and the Czech Republic, William Davidson Institute Working Paper Number 335, August, 2000, p. 3
[ 21 ] Samy Ben Naceur, Narjess Boubakri and Samir Ghazouani, „Privatization and Financial Market Development: A Comparison Between MENA Countries and Other Regions”, Working paper No.390, Economic Research Forum, April, 2008, p.13
[ 22 ] Samuel Adams, Berhanu Mengistu, „The Political Economy of Privatization in Sub-Saharan Africa”, Social Science Quarterly, Volume 89, Number 1, March, 2008, p.p. 82, 83,86,87,88.
[ 23 ] Andrea Goldstein, Privatization in Italy 1993-2002: Goals, Institution, Outcomes, and Outstanding Issues, CESIFO , Working Paper No. 912, Category1: Public Finance, April 2003, Presented at CESIFO Conference “Privatization Experience in the EU, January, 2003.
[ 24 ] Wolfgang Aussenegg, Ranko Jelić, “The Operating Performance of Newly Privatized Firms in Central European Transition Economies”, European Financial Management, Vol. 13 No. 5, 2007.
[ 25 ] Samy Ben Naceur, Samir Ghazouani, Mohammed Omran, „The performance of newly privatized firm in selected MENA countries: The role of ownership structure, governance and liberalization policies”, International Review of Financial Analysis 16 (2007), p.333
[ 26 ] William L. Megginson, Michael F. Price, Jeffry M. Netter, „From State to Market: A Survey of Empirical Studies on Privatization”, Global Equity Markets, A joint conference of the SBF Bourse de Paris and the New York Stock Exchange, Paris, France, December 10-11, 1998, p.9
[ 27 ] Samy Ben Naceur, Samir Ghazouani, Mohammed Omran, „The performance of newly privatized firm in selected MENA countries: The role of ownership structure, governance and liberalization policies”, International Review of Financial Analysis 16 (2007), p.334
[ 28 ] W. L. Megginson, The Financial Economics of Privatization, Oxford University Press, USA, 2005
[ 29 ] Alberto Chrong and Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, “ The Truth about Privatization in Latin America”, Privatization in Latin America, edited by Alberto Chong, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, Stanford University Press and the World Bank, 2005, pp. 3-5
[ 30 ] Samy Ben Naceur, Samir Ghazouani, Mohammed Omran, „The performance of newly privatized firm in selected MENA countries: The role of ownership structure, governance and liberalization policies”, International Review of Financial Analysis 16 (2007), p.334
[ 31 ] Samuel Adams, Berhanu Mengistu, „The Political Economy of Privatization in Sub-Saharan Africa”, Social Science Quarterly, Volume 89, Number 1, March 2008, p. p. 78,79
[ 32 ] INDEC (1998), BNDES (1998, 1999), CORFO, J. Rogozinsjki, La privatizaciun en Mexico: razons v impactos, Trillas, Mexico, 1997
[ 33 ] Narjess Boubakri, Jean Claude Cosset, Nassima Debab, Pascale Valery, „Privatization and Globalization: En Empirical Analysis”, Centre Interuniversitaire sur le Risque, les Politiques Economiques et 'Emploi (C I R P E E), Cahier de recherche/Working Paper 11-30, September 2011, p.p. 1,2
[ 34 ] Alberto Chrong and Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, “The Truth about Privatization in Latin America”, Privatization in Latin America, edited by Alberto Chong, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, Stanford University Press and the World Bank, 2005, p. 27
[ 35 ] Sylvain Turcotte, Philippe Faucher, Haw Markets and Business Power Influenced Privatization in Latin America, February , 2002
[ 36 ] Jan Hanousek, Evzen Kocenda,Jan Svejnar, Privatization and Performance over the Transition: A Reassessment 2005.
[ 37 ] William L. Megginson, Michael F. Price, Jeffry M. Netter, „From State to Market: A Survey of Empirical Studies on Privatization”, Global Equity Markets, A joint conference of the SBF Bourse de Paris and the New York Stock Exchange, Paris, France, December 10-11, 1998, p.6
[ 38 ] A detailed description of this process with a plethora of original material from Serbia's Privatization Agency is found in Marija Obradović, Hronika tranzicionog groblja. Privatizacija društvenog kapitala u Srbiji 1989-2012. Nova srpska politička misao, Institut za noviju istoriju Srbije, Beograd, 2017.
[ 39 ] Stifanos Hailemariam, Henk von Eije and Jos van der Werf, Is there a 'Privatization Trap'? The Case of the Manufacturing Industries in Eritrea, January 2002, Source: RePEc, Research Gate.
[ 40 ] Jan Hanousek, „The Effects of Privatization and Ownership in Transition Economies”, Journal of Economic Literature 47 (3) February ,2009.
[ 41 ] Klaus E. Mayer, Privatization and Corporate Governance in Eastern Europe:The Emergence of Stakeholder Capitalism, Center for East European Studies, Copenhagen Business School, Keynote address Chemnitz East Forum, 19-20 March 2003 ). p.19
[ 42 ] Transition. The Newsletter about Reforming Economies, The World Bank, Volume 6, November 11-12, November-December 1995, p. 2; Martha de Melo, Cevdet Denizer, Alan Gelb, From Plan to Market Patterns of Transition, Policy Research Working Paper, The World Bank, Policy Research Department, Transition Economics Division, January 1996, p. 5
[ 43 ] Marek Dabrowski, Rafal Antczak, Economic Transition in Russia, the Ukraine and Belarus in Comparative Perspective, Center for Social & Economic Research, Warsaw, July, 1995, p. p. 31, 38, 40
[ 44 ] Ljubiša R. Mitrović, In the Role of Transition: between sunset and alternatives ( The pace of transition for transition and alternative society), Univerzitet u Nišu, Filozofski fakultet, Prometej, Niš, Novi Sad, 2017, p. p. 38, 186, 187,188, 189
[ 45 ] Jakubmarian.com, Current population, Data by United Nations, 2015
[ 46 ] Nspm.rs/hronika, 24 February 2021
[ 47 ] https://balcans.aljazeera.net/news/balkan/2016/6/21/svaki-drugi-stanovnik-regijeza-odlazak-u-eu
[ 48 ] https://balcans.aljazeera.net/interactives/2017/1/6/mapa-mladi-napuštaju-zemlje-regije
[ 49 ] Dr Marija Obradović, Dr Nada Novaković, “Is there the genuine influence of the trade union movement in the privatized companies in Serbia?”, Social Movements in Central and Eastern Europe. A renewal of protest and democracy, edited by Ionel Nicu Sava, Geoffrey Pleyers, Editura Universitatii din Bucuresti, 2016.
[ 50 ] Isa Mulaj, “Redefining Property Rights with Specific Reference to Social Ownership in Successor State of Former Yugoslavia. Did it Matter for Economic Efficiency” Second Graduate Conference in Social Sciences The End of Transitions: Central and Eastern European Countries in Comparative Perspective, Central European University, Budapest, Hungary, 5-7- May, 2006, p.6
[ 51 ] Blic, 24. 04. 2019; The term “Western Balkans”was first used in Executive Order 13219 by US President George W. Bush on the 26th of June 2001. The term encompasses the territory of the SFRY and the Republic of Albania.
[ 52 ] Afrim Loku, Nadire Shehu Loku, „Privatising Socially Owned Enterprises, The Case of Kosovo, Asian Economic and Financial Review, 2016, 6 (5), p. 266
[ 53 ] Ibidem, p.p. 262,263, 267
[ 54 ] Jandrić Maja i Dejan Molnar, Kvalitet zaposlenosti i tržište rada u Srbiji. Koliko smo stvarno udaljeni od EU?, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Beograd, 2017, p. 8, Anketa o radnoj snazi, IV kvartal 2020, Republočki zavod za statistiku, Beograd, 2021, p. 4
[ 55 ] Statistički godišnjak ( Statistical Yearbook), Republički zavod za statistiku, Beograd, 2012, p.p. 31,32, 47
[ 56 ] Afrim Loku, Nadire Shehu Loku, „Privatizing Socially Owned Enterprises, The Case of Kosovo, Asian Economic and Financial Review, 2016, 6 (5), p. 261, 262.
[ 57 ] Biljana Mladenović, Siromaštvo u Republici Srbiji 2006-2016 godine. Revidirani i novi podaci, Tim za socijalno uključivanje i smanjenje siromaštva Vlade Republike Srbije, Beograd, avgust 2017, p.14
[ 58 ] ec/europa/eurostat/statistics
[ 59 ] Nada G. Novaković, Radnički štrajkovi i tranzicija u Srbiji od 1990. do 2015. godine, Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung Southeast Europe, Institut društvenih nauka, Beograd, p.131.
[ 60 ] Blic.rs/vesti, 28 October 2018
[ 61 ] Nspm.rs/hronika, 20 November 2018
[ 62 ] Nspm.rs/hronika, 17 October 2018
[ 63 ] Izvor: Statistički godišnjak (Statistical Yearbook) Jugoslavije 1997, Savezni zavod za statistiku, Beograd,1997 Beograd, 1997, p. 38; Statistički godišnjak (Statistical Yearbook) Srbije 2003, Republički zavod za statistiku, Beograd, 2003, p. 37; ;Statistički godišnjak (Statistical Yearbook) Srbije 2005, Republički zavod za statistiku, Beograd, 2005, p. 69; Statistički godišnjak (Statistical Yearbook) Srbije 2006, Republički zavod za statistiku, Beograd, 2006, p. 67; Statistički godišnjak (Statistical Yearbook) Srbije 2020, Republički zavod za statistiku, Beograd, 2020, p. 37
[ 64 ] Goran Penev, „Novije promene u populacionoj politici Srbijeibalkanskihzemalja”, Demografija, vol VII, Beograd, 2010, p. 10
[ 65 ] Izvor: Statistički godišnjak (Statistical Yearbook) Jugoslavije 1997, Savezni zavod za statistiku, Beograd,1997, Beograd, 1997, p. 38; Statistički godišnjak (Statistical Yearbook) Srbije 2003, Republički zavod za statistiku, Beograd , 2003, p. 37; Statistički godišnjak (Statistical Yearbook) Srbije 2005, Republički zavod za statistiku, Beograd , 2005, p. 69; Statistički godišnjak (Statistical Yearbook) Srbije 2006, Republički zavod za statistiku, Beograd , 2006, p. 67; Statistički godišnjak (Statistical Yearbook) Srbije 2020, Republički zavod za statistiku, Beograd, 2020, p. 37
[ 66 ] Ivan Marinković, Politika, 6 November, 2018
[ 67 ] Nspm.rs/hronika, 26 April, 2021
[ 68 ] Ibidem, 1 June, 2021
[ 69 ] Goran Penev, „Fertilitet Republike Srbije u sklopuširegevropskogokruženja”, Demografskipregled, br. 4, 2000, Statistički godišnjak (Statistical Yearbook) Srbije 2020, Republički zavod za statistiku, Beograd, 2020, p. 51
[ 70 ] Lara Lebedinski, mons.rs/demografske-promene, October 15, 2018.
[ 71 ] UN, World Population Prospects, The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables, Working Paper No ESA/P/WP.241, New York, 2015.
[ 72 ] Goran Penev, „Strukture stanovništva premapoluistarosti”, u PopulacijaSrbije početkom 21. veka, (ured. Vladimir Nikitović), Zavod za statistiku Republike Srbije, Beograd, 2015, p. 143, Statistički godišnjak (Statistical Yearbook) Srbije 2015, ), Republički zavod za statistiku, Beograd, 2015, p. 35, Statistički godišnjak (Statistical Yearbook) Srbije 2020, Republički zavod za statistiku, Beograd, 2020, p.38
[ 73 ] Statistički godišnjak (Statistical Yearbook) Srbije 2020, Republički zavod za statistiku, Beograd, 2020, p. 38
[ 74 ] Statistički godišnjak (Statistical Yearbook) Srbije 2004, Republički zavod za statistiku, Beograd, 2004, p. 58, Statistički godišnjak (statistical Yearbook) Srbije 2020, Republički zavod za statistiku, Beograd, 2020, p. 37
[ 75 ] Statistički godišnjak (Statistical Yearbook) Srbije 2004, Republički zavod za statistiku, Beograd, 2004, p. 58, Statistički godišnjak (statistical Yearbook) Srbije 2020, Republički zavod za statistiku, Beograd, 2020, p. 37
[ 76 ] Душан Пророковић, „Демографски трендови у ецропским државама: Кадепопулацијиперифериејконтинента”, Култураполиса,година XIX, посебно издање, 2017, пп. 174-185
[ 77 ] A. Milutinović, Blic.rs/vesti, August 26, 2019
[ 78 ] Dragan Popadić, Zoran Pavlović, Srećko Mihailović, Mladi u Srbiji 2018/2019, Frierich Ebert Stiftung, Beograd, 2019, p. 36
[ 79 ] Biljana Radivojević, „Ekonomske structure stanovništva” u Populacija Srbije početkom 21. veka, urednik Vladimir Nikitović, Republički zavod za statistiku, Beograd, p. 224; Anketa o radnoj snazi, IV kvartal 2020, Republički zavod za statistiku, Beograd, 2021, p. 4